In the “supporting evidence from other countries” track of my Commonwealth Club of California speech (link below), I forecasted unemployment rates would quickly peak and fall in Canada, Japan and the UK (as well as the U.S.) in accordance with my thesis that there is an inverse correlation of housing starts and unemployment in the U.S. and in other G8 countries in times of severe recession. Perhaps you have noted that unemployment has fallen for the second straight month in both Canada and Japan and the UK also reported more than consensus unemployment decreases in the last reporting period. Canada and the UK already reached a bottom in housing starts and I think Japan has as well or else the thesis does not hold! U.S. unemployment is also falling and will quickly peak at 10.4% (or less if bottom in U.S. housing starts occurred earlier) and then quickly fall to ~8% by the end of 2010.
So goes the completion of the cycle that we’ve seen in every severe recession in modern history (mid 70s, early 80s, early 90s and data shows dot com recession wasn’t so bad!).
It’s important to note unemployment will peak and fall much more quickly than consensus estimates just as it rose much more quickly last year (my April ’08 U.S. unemployment forecast called for 9% by April ’09).
This isn’t my field but I study this stuff very closely so my next start-up need not get annihilated by the next economic catastrophe. The consensus ‘experts’ might want to take a look.
http://fora.tv/2009/08/05/Entrepreneurism_Begin_With_The_End_In_Mind_Jon_Fisher#fullprogram
